Google to Predict Next Flu Epidemic
February 9th, 2010 by Geoff
Due to some particularly vicious strains, Flu was the infection not to have in 2009, and avoiding the infection was one of the most popular topics of conversation around the globe. Influenza, commonly known as “the Flu,” is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. In 2009 Google software engineers began to explore if they could go beyond simple trends analysis and accurately predict real-world phenomena using patterns in search queries.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that we might be set to experience a second spike of serious influenza activity anytime in 2010. These are basing its warning to the similar event that happened in 1957 in the U.S.
Google has been gathering information from the last six years, in regards to search queries in 121 U.S cities concerning all strains of Influenza (or The Flu), and similar searches for cures, medicine and reliefs. From this research they have launched Google Flu Trends providing real-time estimates in each of the 50 U.S states researched. These flu estimates is being carried out in consultation with public health officials, and Google hopes to help people understand the spread of flu. Google Flu Trends also aims to provide users with estimates of flu levels in a real-time fashion, updated daily and as more data comes in, a more accurate long-term picture will be built
Although Google Flu Trends can produce real-time predictions, the system is not yet validated by the U.S. government, as it will take time to measure its accuracy against traditional flu surveillance systems which usually takes days or weeks to be collected and processed. Google has taken an ambitious and innovative first step into the future of disease control and prevention.
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